Oil and Gas Industry Outlook 2026: Investments Pursued, Lifting Targets Tested in Old Fields

Indonesia is entering 2026 with a big upstream agenda: the government wants to reverse the long-term decline in national oil and gas production by targeting oil lifting of 610,000 bpd in 2026 and attracting upstream investment of around US$16 billion. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) says 2026 priorities will center on energy security and self-reliance, including maintaining oil output at least at that level, expanding bioenergy programs (B50, BE10–15, bioavtur), and boosting domestic refining capacity through existing refineries and potential new builds.

On execution, SKK Migas says the US$16 billion investment target is already “locked” into the 2026 work program and budget, with an aggressive production push such as at least 100 exploration wells, 100 multi-stage fracturing (MSF) activities, and 100 wells in new structures/fields, plus EOR, mature/idle well management, and other optimization programs. But the article underlines why 2026 will be a stress test: Indonesia is still dominated by mature fields, and the government and contractors are trying to address bottlenecks through three consolidation focuses: regulatory/licensing fixes, faster supporting infrastructure, and a stronger supporting-industry ecosystem, while still facing persistent issues like permitting, supply-chain uncertainty, local vendor readiness, TKDN requirements, and operational social/security dynamics.

Industry observers in the piece are more cautious: one practitioner argues the 610,000 bpd target looks heavy given that roughly 70% of upstream work areas are mature, often with high water cut and steep decline rates, and predicts 2026 production could land closer to 570,000–580,000 bpd. The article also stresses the time reality: even “fast track” exploration typically needs years to become onstream, and big progress likely depends on bolder exploration (ESDM notes 68 basins remain unexplored, with identified “sweet spots”), not just short-cycle well work and small PoDs. On the downstream/policy side, ESDM is also preparing a fuel import quota policy for private gas stations (SPBU swasta) in 2026, with one option discussed being to keep their import share around 10%, pending final ministerial approval.

Source : Kontan.co.id

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Oil and Gas Industry Outlook 2026: Investments Pursued, Lifting Targets Tested in Old Fields

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