Indonesia Energy Outlook 2026: “Aggressive Upstream, Profitable Downstream”

The article frames Indonesia’s 2026 energy strategy around one core idea: “Aggressive Upstream, Profitable Downstream.” In plain terms, Indonesia needs to push harder on the supply side (exploration, maintaining production, developing both fossil and renewable resources) while ensuring the downstream side (refining, monetization, technology adoption, value chain efficiency) stays economically healthy and sustainable for stakeholders. It argues this is necessary because domestic energy demand keeps rising while legacy oil and gas fields naturally decline, and the clean-energy transition is accelerating but not yet fast enough to fully replace fossil energy’s role.

Looking back at 2020–2025, the piece notes national oil lifting hovered around ~600 thousand barrels/day, reflecting the weight of mature-field decline, while gas proved more resilient but introduced tougher trade-offs: domestic supply balance vs export contracts, pricing policy, and infrastructure readiness. It highlights major gas discoveries in Andaman (Timpan, Layaran, Tangkulo) and deepwater East Kalimantan (including Geng North) as signals that Indonesia’s upstream future is increasingly gas-oriented, but emphasizes many figures are still “gas-in-place” and will only translate into real supply after appraisal, POD/FID, and infrastructure buildout, likely late 2020s into early 2030s. Meanwhile, oil remains critical, so EOR, including Chemical EOR in Rokan (Minas), is positioned as a key lever to slow decline and build domestic capability.

For the road ahead, the outlook splits into time horizons. 2026–2030 prioritizes holding production through mature-field optimization, reactivating idle wells, deploying EOR, and fast-tracking exploration close to existing infrastructure; on gas, it stresses speeding appraisal and investment decisions for large finds because delays could force LNG imports, while downstream should focus on refinery efficiency, supply-chain optimization, and strengthening the gas value chain. 2030–2040 envisions gas as the backbone of the transition for industry and power, with downstream shifting from fuel-centric to a mix of petrochemicals, gas, and electricity. Beyond 2040, renewables become the main stream supported by storage and smart grids, while gas remains relevant via CCS/CCUS integration. The conclusion: this theme should be treated as a practical playbook, not a slogan, to protect energy security while funding and enabling decarbonization.

Source : OG Indonesia.com

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Indonesia Energy Outlook 2026: “Aggressive Upstream, Profitable Downstream”

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